Trump drastically inflates annual fentanyl demise numbers

Former President Donald Trump claimed at a current marketing campaign rally that greater than 300,000 People are dying annually from the artificial opioid drug fentanyl, and that the variety of fentanyl overdoses was the “lowest” throughout his administration and has skyrocketed since.

“We’re dropping 300,000 folks a 12 months to fentanyl that comes via our border,” Trump informed his supporters at a July 24 marketing campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We had it right down to the bottom quantity and now it is worse than it is ever been,” he stated.

Trump’s figures seem to don’t have any foundation in actual fact. Authorities statistics present the variety of drug overdose deaths per 12 months is hovering round 100,000 to 110,000, with opioid-related deaths at about 81,000. That is sufficient that the federal government has labeled opioid-related overdoses an “epidemic,” however nowhere near the quantity Trump cited.

Furthermore, although the variety of opioid deaths has risen since Trump left workplace, it is incorrect to say they have been the “lowest” whereas he was president.

Numbers are excessive, however nowhere close to Trump’s declare

Trump marketing campaign nationwide press secretary Karoline Leavitt would not remark particularly on the supply for Trump’s statistics. She as an alternative despatched KFF Well being Information an e-mail with a number of bullet factors in regards to the opioid disaster underneath the heading: “DRUGS ARE POURING OVER HARRIS’ OPEN BORDER INTO OUR COMMUNITIES.”

One such bullet famous that there have been “112,000 deadly drug overdoses” final 12 months and linked to a narrative from NPR reporting that reality — immediately rebutting Trump’s personal declare of 300,000 fentanyl deaths. Moreover, the quantity NPR reported is an general determine, not for fentanyl-related deaths solely.

Newer authorities figures estimated that there have been 107,543 whole drug overdose deaths in 2023, with an estimated 74,702 of these involving fentanyl. These figures have been in keeping with what consultants on the subject informed KFF Well being Information.

“The variety of precise deaths might be considerably greater,” stated Andrew Kolodny, medical director for the Opioid Coverage Analysis Collaborative at Brandeis College, noting that many such overdose deaths go uncounted by authorities researchers.

“However I don’t know the place one would get that variety of 300,000,” Kolodny added.

Trump’s declare that fentanyl deaths have been the “lowest” throughout his administration and at the moment are worse than ever can also be off the mark.

Overdose deaths — particularly these from artificial opioids resembling fentanyl — began climbing steadily within the Nineteen Nineties. When Trump took workplace in January 2017, the variety of overdose deaths associated to artificial opioids was about 21,000. By January 2021, when he left the White Home, that tally was nearing 60,000, knowledge from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention’s Nationwide Important Statistics System exhibits. Deaths involving artificial opioids continued to extend after Trump left workplace.

“There’s some reality to saying that there are extra People dying [of opioids] than ever earlier than,” Kolodny stated. “However once more, in case you have been to have a look at developments in the course of the Trump administration, deaths simply just about stored getting worse.”

Within the final 12 months, although, statistics present that overdose numbers have plateaued or fallen barely, although it is too quickly to say whether or not that development will maintain.

On condition that Trump’s claims about fentanyl got here when discussing the southern border “invasion,” it is price noting that, in keeping with the U.S. authorities, the overwhelming majority of fentanyl caught being smuggled into the nation illegally comes through authorized ports of entry. Furthermore, almost 90% of individuals convicted of fentanyl drug trafficking in 2022 have been U.S. residents, an evaluation by the Cato Institute, a libertarian suppose tank, confirmed. That 12 months, U.S. residents obtained 12 occasions as many fentanyl trafficking convictions as did immigrants who have been within the U.S. with out authorization, the evaluation confirmed.

Our ruling

Trump stated, “We’re dropping 300,000 folks a 12 months to fentanyl that comes via our border. We had it right down to the bottom quantity and now it is worse than it is ever been.”

Annual U.S. fentanyl deaths have elevated since he left workplace, however Trump’s declare about 300,000 deaths has no foundation in actual fact and is contradicted by figures his press secretary shared.

Trump is fallacious to claim that overdoses have been the bottom when he was president. Furthermore, Trump continues to hyperlink fentanyl trafficking to unlawful immigration — a declare statistics don’t help.

We fee Trump’s declare Pants on Hearth!

Our sources

Cato Institute, “U.S. Residents Have been 89% of Convicted Fentanyl Traffickers in 2022,” Aug. 23, 2023.

Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, “U.S. Overdose Deaths Lower in 2023, First Time Since 2018,” Might 15, 2024.

C-SPAN, Former President Trump Campaigns in Charlotte, North Carolina, July 24, 2024.

Division of Homeland Safety, Truth Sheet: DHS Is on the Entrance Traces Combating Illicit Opioids, Together with Fentanyl, Dec. 22, 2023.

E-mail change with Karoline Leavitt, nationwide press secretary for Donald J. Trump for President, July 29, 2024.

Nationwide Important Statistics System, Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, Provisional Drug Overdose Demise Counts, July 7, 2024.

NPR, “In 2023 Fentanyl Overdoses Ravaged the U.S. and Fueled a New Tradition Struggle Battle,” Dec. 28, 2023.

Telephone interview with Andrew Kolodny, medical director for the Opioid Coverage Analysis Collaborative at Brandeis College, July 31, 2024.